Vikram Soni ( UGC Professor, National Physical Laboratory) v_soni@vsnl.com)

Diwan Singh ( Natural Heritage First)   diwans2007@gmail.com

 

 

Objective

In the exercise for preparing master Plan-2021  no attention has been paid to the carrying capacity of the city. Further urban growth of the city has been allowed both vertically( redevelopment) and horizontally( R-Zone in agricultural belt) without paying any attention to the availability of the infrastructure. The most basic infrastructure for any city planning is the availability of water.

 

The objective of this study is to find out the actual water situation of the city in terms of   consumption, sources, demand – present and future, and the dangers it poses.

 

One problem with  MPD-2021 is reflected in the fact that DDA and DJB   disagree on the per capita demand of water. DJB has taken standard of 60 gpcd, whereas DDA has taken norm of 80 gpcd.

Another problem is that though the city is growing fast neither DDA nor DJB record any definitive findings on the quality and quantity of  one of its major sources of water – ground water. One study (Water and carrying capacity of a city : Delhi, EPW, Nov 8,200, by  Vikram Soni) pointed out that the amount of groundwater withdrawn is 3 times that recharged, which is responsible for the dramatic drop in groundwater levels that has been reported. The approach of DDA seems to be reactive. It is more interested in hiding its flaws rather than present the facts and work towards a solution. In the draft Master Plan – 2021, it says – “ ………In Delhi too, groundwater contributes a substantial quantity of water supply, but little is known about its quantity  or quality” . But in the final plan this statement is deleted, possibly as a reaction to the criticism by the media. The city cannot be run by hiding the facts. The sustainability of the city seems to be in question with the present state of affairs.

 

Consumption Figures :

None of the agencies DJB or DDA have data on actual total consumption of water in the city. The most reliable method in these circumstances is to back calculate; by calculating sewage released and thus arriving at the total water consumed and sources of this water:

 

(I)        Sewage :

 a)  Sewage released in Yamuna   :  As per CPCB annual Report 2002-2003, Delhi releases 3685 MLD ( Million litres per day) or (818 MGD) in Yamuna. After substracting  55MGD of sewage received from Haryana and U.P, the figure for total sewage originating from Delhi and released into the river comes to 763 MGD.

 

b) Waste water diverted for other uses after treatment :  A large quantity of treated water from WWTPs ( Waste Water Treatment Plants) go for irrigation, horticulture  and power plants) and not released in the Yamuna.

According to a report : DWSSP- Project Preparation Study-Final Report-Part C-Sewerage- Volume I by PriceWaterHouseCoopers ( See APPENDIX –I) the total sewage diverted for alternate uses is 240MGD.

c)  Sewage  released in Water bodies( talabs, johads etc)

In addition to the above, there are vast areas in Delhi not connected to sewerage network, and the sewage released in these areas go to  fill up local water bodies like Talabs ( johads)

As per affidavit filed by Govt. of Delhi in Vinod Kumar Jain vs Govt. of Delhi & others,  over 200 villages and an unspecified number of unauthorized colonies have not  been connected to sewerage network, resulting in sewage falling into local water bodies.

As per this affidavit, these villages  do not consume more than half the city’s per capita water.  We take  the same for sewage released i.e 60/2=30gpcd.

With an average population of 5000 persons in each village and same number for adjoining unauthorized colonies, the total sewage released comes to 45 MGD( 30*10000*200). About half of this sewage finds its way into storm water drains which finally reaches Yamuna. Thus about 22.5 MGD of sewage goes to local water bodies like Talabs.

 

(II)       Calculating total water consumption  :

i) The total sewage release of the city thus come to 1025 MGD. The standard norm is that 80% of water supply returns back as sewage (source : MPD-2021).  This means that the total quantity of water consumed in Delhi is 1281 MGD. We have not included the seepage and evaporation from the drains in the NCT, which would add a marginal amount to this figure.

ii) According to the per capita consumption at the rate of 80gpcd determined by DDA.  And taking account of the population the consumption works out to 80gpcd*16.5million=1320 MGD.

 

It is reassuring that all these figures computed from different points of view converge to around 1300 MGD.

 

(III)     Groundwater as a component of total water consumption in the city  and its sustainability

Presently,  DJB is supplying 745 MGD  of potable water. Out of this 100 MGD is  from ground water resource, abstracted through Ranney Wells and Tubewells and the rest 645 MGD sourced from surface water i.e Yamuna , Ganga and Beas river systems. It means that besides the DJB supply, 536MGD( 1281-745) of water is abstracted privately by residents from ground water resource.. It takes  the total abstraction ( incuding the Floodplains – Ranney wells ) from sub surface to the amount of  ( 100+ 536) =  636 MGD    ( 49% of total water consumed in the city). This figure is also confirmed by Newspaper reports, according to which about 48% of water requirement in the city is met through groundwater resource.( Times of India dated April 11, 2006)

This brings into focus the sustainability of this resource.

 

Groundwater Recharge Potential : The total ground water recharge potential for the city amounts to 150 MCM  or 90.8 MGD.( source : Water and carrying capacity of a city : Delhi by Prof. Vikram Soni).

It has been calculated in the referred study after a detailed analysis that only 7cm rainfall penetrates the groundwater aquifers in a normal open ground. Water harvesting from rooftops can capture about 30 cms out of 42 cms of monsoon rainfall. Area of rooftops constitutes 10% of the Delhi state’s geographical area i.e. 150 sq km

On adding these, (7 cm *1500 sq kms) +(30cms*150sq kms)= 150 MCM( 90mgd).

 

The current yield from Yamuna floodplains is ( 65 to 100 MGD). The water level in the floodplain area like Burari and Palla, where most of the Ranney wells are installed  is going down at a fast pace. This shows that the potential of Yamuna floodplains in the current disposition is not more than about 85 MGD. So the city’s water  recharge potential is around  90+85=175 MGD. To increase the potential of floodplains we need to allow floodwaters to spread over the floodplains and stop any developmental activities on it. This potential can be immense, and meet more than half the water requirement of the city.

 

ALARMING

Overdraft:

i) The city’s recharge potential is only 175 MGD, whereas, the withdrawal of groundwater is  636 MGD, overdraft by 3.5 times. This figure goes much higher if we look at the actual recharge, which is barely half the potential.  Normal rainfall recharge is possible only for 40% of the city’s geographical area , as, more than 60% of the city is concretized or connected to drainage, thus not allowing the water to stay on ground to recharge.

ii)Rooftop harvesting is barely implemented in 1% of city’s buildings.

iii)Yamuna floodplains are continually being lost to developmental activities leaving lesser scope for floodwater to recharge.

To the best of our estimates, the current actual recharge of groundwater in the city is not more than 50% of the recharge potential i.e 85 MGD. The proportion of recharge to withdrawal thus comes  to  1: 8.5 .

 

Depleting water table and quality of groundwater  Delhi :

The infrastructure development of the city could never keep pace with the growth of the city. Almost 4 lakh people are adding to the city every year. Infrastructure can not be developed overnight, whereas the population of the city has been increasing at an accelerating pace over last two decades. It takes decades for the entire water pipelines be replaced to meet new requirements of higher capacity pipelines. The same applies for other infrastructural requirements like Sewage drains, power, commercial spaces, public spaces, playgrounds, parks, schools, etc. Here we are only concentrating on the water aspect .

 

Quality

Due to a web of  Kuccha  sewage nallahs traversing the city and untreated waste being discharged into Yamuna, the quality of groundwater is deteriorating at a very fast pace.

Report released in 2003 by PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS, consultants for DJB have gone to the extent of advising closure of Ranney wells and tubewells in Trans- Yamuna area because the groundwater is contaminated beyond the scope  of treatment ( Extracts from the report  in APPENDIX-3)

 

Watertable

Besides contamination, the water table is sinking at an alarming rate, which is a direct effect of over withdrawal of ground water. In its latest report released in 2006 CGWB has revealed that in 2003 the extreme range for groundwater level in Delhi was 40-60 metres BGL. Today a new range of 60-65 BGL has been added. In south and south – west Delhi the withdrawal has dipped into age- old reserves. The report also reveals that overdrawing of water  has also resulted in brackish and hard water. In 1977, only25% of areas in Delhi had saline water. Now almost 45% have brackish water  which is not recommended for domestic use. The fluoride, nitrate and iron levels are going much beyond the permissible limits. Besides this report, we have found from field survey, that we are already digging into age old reservoirs at many places. Water is drawn from a depth of 500 to 600 feet in Mahipal Pur, Vasant Kunj and JNU. In Kishan Garh village in Vasant Kunj, DJB tubewell dug to the depth of 1000 feet is not yielding any water. These are confined aquifers and are charged through lateral flow of water in the depths and take not less than 50 to 100 years to recharge.

 

( IV)    Future Official Projections and critique

 In the MPD-2021, DDA has made demand projections for various years. For 2006 it has estimated demand to be 1322 MGD. Shortfall of (1322-745= 577 MGD) is largely met by groundwater resource to the extent of 536 MGD.  (             When the resource has already exhausted, it is an interesting question to ask how long can this resource last!)

In 2011 and 2021, it is short by 579 and  461 MGD  respectively after assuming that all current resources will last and proposed measures planned by DJB are successful.

( For more details please see APPENDIX-2).

One more serious cause of worry in the present situation is that more than 1500 unauthorized colonies and slums when regularized and rehabilitated will start demanding their legal share of water. It is estimated that presently residents in these colonies are surviving on small average of 10 to 20 gpcd and not speaking up because of their illegal status. But on regularization this demand will rise by an extra  ( 60gpcd *4million= 240 MGD). The question of survival of present populace becomes more serious, let alone expansion.

 

 

(V)       Other Concerns and what to do!

Nothing can be more precious than the river floodplains for recharge and storage of water as has been pointed out in the latest study by Prof. Vikram Soni in his latest article “Three Waters”. We need to immediately stop all construction activities on the floodplains and ensure that floodwater spread over these areas during monsoons.

 

Due to drying up of the aquifers, the soil resilience is reducing and making the city’s buildings more vulnerable to earth quakes. Uprooting of trees after a mild storm is an indication of this.

 

The horizontal expansion of the city by designating an R-Zone, where any builder can buy 10 acres of land from farmers and develop real estate will bring to finish the last remaining expanse of green belt around the city. The need for preservation of this green belt as a green buffer is much more today because of fast urbanizing Haryana on three sides of the city.

 

More capital investments create more opportunity for migration. We need to put an end to this and stop all major investments in the city, if it has to survive. It is about time that cities outside Delhi should be made more attractive by giving them privileged infrastructure and tax cuts,

 

The Third Ring Road need to be stopped in its tracks. These roads inflate the rates of agricultural lands nearby and bring in colonizers to raise more real estate.

Farmers in the villages of Delhi be strictly monitored for not allowing to make non-agricultural uses of their land. As an incentive they can be given a scheme, whereby, raising a forest and building and preserving water bodies will be more remunerative than agriculture.( For some more talk on this chapter see APPENDIX-3)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                            APPENDIX – 1

 

 

Use of Treated Effluents from WWTPs

WWTP	Effluent Amount  (mld)	Effluent Amount (mgd)
Irrigation and Flood Control
Coronation  Pillar( I,II and III)	182	40
Okhla (I and II)	637	140
Keshopur- 50% out of 72 mgd	164	36
Sub Total	983	216
DDA Horticulture  System
Rithala (I) 50% OF 40 mgd	91	20
Sub Total	91	20
Power Plant DVB  and Horticulture
Delhi Gate Nallah	10	2.2
Sen Nursing Home	10	2.2
Narela- Apollo Power	46	10.1
Sub Total	66	14.5
TOTAL                                             1140                               250.5

Source : DWSSP- Project Preparation Study-Final Report-Part C-Sewerage- Volume I

by PriceWaterHouseCoopers

 

As per latest information, no treated water is diverted for Narela Apollo Power Plant. So the figure for total waste water diverted for alternate uses come to 240 MGD.

 

 

 

 

 

 

APPENDIX-2

 

(i)                 Projected Demand and shortfall by DDA:

 

Going by the norms of DDA:

2006

DDA’s projected demand- 1320mgd

shortfall in 2006-07 is ( 1281-745) = 536 MGD as per the current factual situation

Shortfall is (1322-745)= 577 MGD as per official estimates by DDA.

This shortfall is met by groundwater withdrawal to the extent of 548 MGD.

2011

DDA’s projected demand- 1520 mgd

DJB shall be able to meet demand upto 941 MGD ( which includes some proposed measures and ASSUMED to be  successful)

Shortage in 2011 is ( 1520-941)= 579mgd, after assuming all measures to be adopted by DJB are successful.

2021

DDA’s projected demand- 1840 mgd

shortfall in 2021 is 900 MGD.

After assuming that the work on three dams Renuka dam, Kishau dams and Lakhwar Vyasi dams shall be completed, the shortfall shall continue to be 461 MGD.

 

We must be wondering that  we have just crossed year 2006 and we were not witness to any such water crisis which could be termed as emergency, inspite of the fact that the statistics mentioned above indicates so. We were short by 577 MGD.

The reason is very simple ;

-OVERWITHDRAWAL  OF GROUNDWATER  AND IT CAN NOT LAST FOR LONG

 

(ii)        Solutions offered by DJB :

The solutions offered by DJB are not only grossly inadequate but at the same time  not feasible.

To meet shortfall upto 2006 :  DJB proposed to approach the Ministry of Water Resources, Govt. of India for extra allocation of raw water during lean season.  Firstly Ministry of Water Resources doesn’t produce water. A solution means an identifiable and feasible source which DJB has no clue of.  2006 has  already gone . Our age old groundwater reserves have saved the day for DJB.  BUT FOR HOW LONG !

To meet shortfall upto 2011 :

After assuming that U.P will release raw water for Sonia Vihar water treatment plant and Munak canal will carry water from Beas to Delhi and with completion of proposed water recycling plants at Bawana, Okhla, Rithala and Haiderpur there will still be a shortage of 579 MGD.  DJB proposes that it will  meet shortage of upto 200 mgd by developing a system of tubewells in flood plains of west U.P and Haryana.  It must be noted that the targeted area for sourcing water is already a critical zone and declared grey/dark zone by CGWB. A letter to this effect have already been written by Shri Rajender Singh popularly known as Water Man of India to DDA and Shri Jaipal Reddy, Minister for Urban development.

There is very low possibility of drawing water from these areas. Farmers in the region are already facing depleting water levels.

Even after this there will still be a shortage of 379mgd.

To meet shortfall upto 2021 :

Shortfall in 2021 is 900 MGD.

After assuming that all measures adopted for 2011  come into operation and continue to yield water for all along till 2021,( which is doubtful as already explained) there will be an additional shortage of 900 mgd in 2021. To meet requirement of upto 440 mgd, DJB assumes that work on three dams Renuka dam, Kishau dams and Lakhwar Vyasi dams shall be completed. These dams, even if completed will take at least 10 to 15 years which is very usual. By the time of completion , MPD-2021 will be over. How are we going to cope with the existing shortfall and future increase in demand in these 14 years.  These dams, even if completed will take at least 10 to 15 years which is very usual. By the time of completion, MPD-2021 will be over. The reports arriving that water flow in the Himalayan rivers is showing decline, further makes the situation precarious. Even after assuming that these dams come into operation by then, there will still be a shortage of 461 mgd.

 

 

 

 

APPENDIX-3

 

Report released in 2003 by PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS, consultants for DJB have the following to say: – “until, 1985, the water from Ranney wells was considered potable. Since then their quality has deteriorated , as has their yield. Water from 8 Ranney wells in Trans- Yamuna area contains too much iron (P-series mainly) and ammonia ( V-series mainly), and is therefore treated at the iron removal plant at Okhla.”

Water at many places have turned so polluted that the treatment has not been found viable. The consultants has the following to say: “ Rehabilitation of Ranney wells and tubewells that have been closed for reasons of poor quality therefore is not cost – effective as they will yield ever higher contaminated water, leading to more investments at the Okhla WTP  but most probably closure of this WTP might occur in favour of more surface water( if available)

 

In a latest report by an NGO, hazards Centre that appeared in The Hindu dated 2 March 2007  has revealed that out of 77 water samples tested in various colonies of Delhi , only nine were found fit for drinking.

 

 

 

                        APPENDIX-4

 

 Other Concerns:

 

Seismic danger:

The vanishing away of ground water has made the city much vulnerable to earthquakes. The water in the soil provide cushion  to  reduce the effect of earthquakes

Possibility of soil resilience being reduced due to groundwater depletion has resulted in many old trees being uprooted due to less water in soil. This inference can be extended for decrease of soil resilience which would result in shocks, tremors with more intensity. Some approximate studies done linking hydrology and seismology   are being done by IIT Roorkee. Also by Prof. Seshagiri Rao of IIT, Delhi.

The problem become more serious considering the fact that Delhi falls in Seismic Zone IV.

 

R-Zone and the vanishing agricultural belt:

With the horizontal expansion of the city as envisaged in the current Master Plan-2021- with provision for R- Zone in the agricultural belt of outer Delhi. This R- zone has been left open for developers, builders to build residential flats. This is going to be disastrous for the city in terms of air pollution. This agricultural belt is the only green buffer between fast urbanizing Haryana and Delhi. The green belt being reduced to just one km on periphery of the city will reduce the capacity of the city to clean its air. Poisonous gases tend to get concentrated in large cities as  the idle time at night is often not enough to allow air to circulate with the hinterland and cleanse itself. This has happened with the city of Los Angeles. This is why buffers are very important to falicitate the circulation within the city.

 

Need land to develop forests

New York city water users are investing $ 1 billion in developing forests instead of putting $ 4 to 5 billion in water treatment plants. But here we concretizing the  potential land for any such forestry in the MPD-2021

 

Urban Sprawl not recommended

The Asian born Architect who had recently visited India, advised against urban sprawl and suggested a compact city. Also, according to him, the city is already compact enough.

 

IIIrd Ring Road

As if the current congestion in the city was not enough, the planners have decided to aggravate it further. After the first ring road, the expanding city built a second outer ring in the 1980s. Now we are faced with a third ring road. It is a open fact, that any new road construction in previously unurbanised parts of city is an invitation for further migration and urbanisation. It is an opportunity for colonisers to buy farmers’ lands at cheaper rates and map out new unauthorized colonies. By construction of this third ring road, we are ensuring that the remaining green belt of the city in the form of agricultural land, a major green buffer between the fast urbanizing Haryana and Delhi, is also lost forever and our lungs will lose their last and only hope to breathe fresh air. In MPD-2021, we seem to be facilitating this process as the activity of buying farmer’s land and building housing colonies has been made legal. Now anyone can buy a patch of 10 acres from the farmer directly and construct flats. An activity that had been destroying our green belt, illegally, for last 50 years, now enjoys a legal stamp to do so.

 

 

More constructions an opportunity for migration

Most of the constructions involve contractors hiring cheap labor. Such labor is only available in other states. The former laborers in the city like ours, find it more suitable and expedient to engage in tehbazari to meet the increasing cost of living in the city. Hence, they are never a source of labor for constructions in the city.

Further constructions in the city are a magnet for migrating labour and the city gets into a vicious circle of providing more amenities to more people, thus stretching it beyond its carrying capacity.

 

Soil Resilience

Possibility of soil resilience being reduced due to groundwater depletion has resulted in many old trees being uprooted due to less water in soil. This inference can be extended for decrease of soil resilience which would result in shocks, tremors with more intensity. Some approximate studies done linking hydrology and seismology   are being done by IIT Roorkee. Also by Prof. Seshagiri Rao of IIT, Delhi.

The problem become more serious considering the fact that Delhi falls in Seismic Zone IV.

 

Providing proper  drainage   network for the current population is still a big challenge

Here are some excerpts from a report  on drainage system prepared by the petitions committee of Delhi Govt  (dated 28 Nov. 2006) on representation by an NGO called Chetna .

………… “The commissioner informed the committee that there were about 1296 drains within the jurisdiction of the MCD which are maintained and cleaned by Delhi Jal Board. He was of the opinion that the drains not only being utilized for carrying domestic and rain water, but due to faulty sewerage system in the city, the sewerage waste was also being pumped into the MCD’s Storm water drains., which not only results in overflowing of these drains, but the solid waste so discharged becomes rock hard, thus making the process of de-silting an uphill task. “

…………..” The commissioner admitted that the existing drainage system was not adequate for the growing population and expanding colonies. He was of the opinion that there was an urgent need to remodel the existing drains and also lay new lines.”

 

Suggestions

1.      No further expansion- both vertical and horizontal growth of the city be allowed till the time a sustainable  infrastructure for the current populace is in place. The plan for R-Zone(horizontal) and the redevelopment (vertical growth) of the city be immediately scrapped.

2.      All the remaining agricultural land be strictly monitored for unauthorized use.